Hey, I was the person who actually messaged you on twitter recently :
- What is your best guess estimate for timeframes on longevity escape velocity? Do you think most people in their twenties will make the cut? What approach do you think will mainly get us there?
- What is your current investment portfolio? If you hypothetically had $90K net worth that you could invest (my current situtation), how would you approach it and how much % would you put into longevity/biotech vs other things like SPY & crypto? Additionally, have you been involved in private companies?
- Do you think you will get rich off of longevity investing? Do you feel the longevity situation is similar to the early situation of the crypto space, where those 'in the know' got rich as heck because they were onto something that the general public was just clueless about? How long do you think this 'window of opportunity' will last for those few people who are aware of the magnitude of the anti-aging paradigm?
- Is now the perfect time to invest into longevity, or do you think we need to wait for the damage repair approach to progress further?
- You have some cool longevity focused websites/projects. Do you have any other website/project ideas for someone with a programming background that you either don't have time or care enough to implement? I am personally looking for some projects to work on (I have a background in programming).
- Do you have any book recommendations for investors or just good books in general? (Also, you should make a goodreads account. )
- I don't have a great estimate for when longevity escape velocity will be achieved. There are no trends we can extrapolate since maximal lifespan has not increased ever. However median lifespan has increased over the years but it's hard to say if there is a convex trend in the recent historical data. My uber-conservative upper bound guess is 2060 -- mostly based on artificial intelligence / technological singularity arguments. This would imply most people in their 20s would reach LEV.
It's changed somewhat because of the recent crypto run up. But the main take away should be that longevity biotech only makes up 2% of my portfolio because there are so few investible public companies right now. As more companies come into the space I will increase the allocation. Drugs have very high failure rates (~90%) so diversification is important. I have not invested in any private companies (yet). Note: Every person's personal financial circumstances and goals are different. I don't tell people what to do and none of this is financial advice.
- Longevity biotechnology has the potential to totally transform society. Tremendous value will be created. The question is how that value will be captured, at what stage of investment, and how the distribution profile of returns look like.
For the sake of argument let's say Unity Biotechnology was successful in their first trial in some parallel universe. At IPO the company was valued at ~700M. If Unity was successful in label expanding to many indications I would imagine they would become a $100B company easily (VERY conservative, not even including aging as an indication). Just look at Humira for an example of profits of an extremely successful multi-indication drug. ~100x returns would not be impossible.
But of course it is not clear that a single therapeutic alone could achieve strong rejuvenation or efficacy in multiple age-related diseases. Perhaps it will require many drugs / therapies and spread across many different competitors. There will also be many failed trials (and companies). Returns might be much less concentrated than those of tech where monopoly effects are much stronger with no expiration.
I don't think longevity biotech will have the same multiples as crypto solely because the starting valuation of something like BTC was so much lower. But the flipside for biotech is you might not need to be so selective to get great returns. I think the window of opportunity before the general public clues in will be several years. Most people have never heard of Unity Biotechnology and it took about 2 years from IPO to get to their Phase 2 readout. If Unity had been successful many more people would know about them by now.
-Now is NOT the perfect time to invest in longevity stocks -- there are not many to choose from. Remember diversification is key. Things will improve once Juvenescence goes public this year. However, now IS the time to start learning about the science and the industry. You need to be prepared before these companies become public.
-No other projects at the moment.
- You should read Juvenescence by Jim Mellon. It's practically required reading for longevity investing. Other books off the top of my head:
For a comprehensive review of what is currently known about aging biology itself, one of the best books is Robert Arking's Biology of Longevity and Aging, 4th edition (2018). See also João Pedro Magalhães senescence.info. For history of the longevity biotech scene from ~1975-2000, see Merchants of Immortalty by Stephen S. Hall. For some well-argued skepticism and thoughts on the challenges of developing medical nanotechnology, see Against Transhumanism by Richard A. L. Jones at softmachines.org.
Hey, I was the person who actually messaged you on twitter recently :
- What is your best guess estimate for timeframes on longevity escape velocity? Do you think most people in their twenties will make the cut? What approach do you think will mainly get us there?
- What is your current investment portfolio? If you hypothetically had $90K net worth that you could invest (my current situtation), how would you approach it and how much % would you put into longevity/biotech vs other things like SPY & crypto? Additionally, have you been involved in private companies?
- Do you think you will get rich off of longevity investing? Do you feel the longevity situation is similar to the early situation of the crypto space, where those 'in the know' got rich as heck because they were onto something that the general public was just clueless about? How long do you think this 'window of opportunity' will last for those few people who are aware of the magnitude of the anti-aging paradigm?
- Is now the perfect time to invest into longevity, or do you think we need to wait for the damage repair approach to progress further?
- You have some cool longevity focused websites/projects. Do you have any other website/project ideas for someone with a programming background that you either don't have time or care enough to implement? I am personally looking for some projects to work on (I have a background in programming).
- Do you have any book recommendations for investors or just good books in general? (Also, you should make a goodreads account. )
Thanks!
Hi Ilya,
- I don't have a great estimate for when longevity escape velocity will be achieved. There are no trends we can extrapolate since maximal lifespan has not increased ever. However median lifespan has increased over the years but it's hard to say if there is a convex trend in the recent historical data. My uber-conservative upper bound guess is 2060 -- mostly based on artificial intelligence / technological singularity arguments. This would imply most people in their 20s would reach LEV.
- I wrote about my investment portfolio in this post: https://longevitymarketcap.substack.com/p/006-portfolio-and-ubx-failure-roundup
It's changed somewhat because of the recent crypto run up. But the main take away should be that longevity biotech only makes up 2% of my portfolio because there are so few investible public companies right now. As more companies come into the space I will increase the allocation. Drugs have very high failure rates (~90%) so diversification is important. I have not invested in any private companies (yet). Note: Every person's personal financial circumstances and goals are different. I don't tell people what to do and none of this is financial advice.
- Longevity biotechnology has the potential to totally transform society. Tremendous value will be created. The question is how that value will be captured, at what stage of investment, and how the distribution profile of returns look like.
For the sake of argument let's say Unity Biotechnology was successful in their first trial in some parallel universe. At IPO the company was valued at ~700M. If Unity was successful in label expanding to many indications I would imagine they would become a $100B company easily (VERY conservative, not even including aging as an indication). Just look at Humira for an example of profits of an extremely successful multi-indication drug. ~100x returns would not be impossible.
But of course it is not clear that a single therapeutic alone could achieve strong rejuvenation or efficacy in multiple age-related diseases. Perhaps it will require many drugs / therapies and spread across many different competitors. There will also be many failed trials (and companies). Returns might be much less concentrated than those of tech where monopoly effects are much stronger with no expiration.
I don't think longevity biotech will have the same multiples as crypto solely because the starting valuation of something like BTC was so much lower. But the flipside for biotech is you might not need to be so selective to get great returns. I think the window of opportunity before the general public clues in will be several years. Most people have never heard of Unity Biotechnology and it took about 2 years from IPO to get to their Phase 2 readout. If Unity had been successful many more people would know about them by now.
-Now is NOT the perfect time to invest in longevity stocks -- there are not many to choose from. Remember diversification is key. Things will improve once Juvenescence goes public this year. However, now IS the time to start learning about the science and the industry. You need to be prepared before these companies become public.
-No other projects at the moment.
- You should read Juvenescence by Jim Mellon. It's practically required reading for longevity investing. Other books off the top of my head:
- Ending Aging by Aubrey de Grey
- Nassim Taleb (all works)
- The Beginnings of Biotech by Sally Smith Hughes
- Zero to One by Peter Thiel
- Emperor of all Maladies by Siddhartha Mukherjee
- The Gene by Siddhartha Mukherjee
For a comprehensive review of what is currently known about aging biology itself, one of the best books is Robert Arking's Biology of Longevity and Aging, 4th edition (2018). See also João Pedro Magalhães senescence.info. For history of the longevity biotech scene from ~1975-2000, see Merchants of Immortalty by Stephen S. Hall. For some well-argued skepticism and thoughts on the challenges of developing medical nanotechnology, see Against Transhumanism by Richard A. L. Jones at softmachines.org.